Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
